Thursday, September 23, 2010

China's economy remains to be seen whether there are signs of rebound

1,2-month investment in fixed assets grew 26.5% in March manufacturing PMI index over the 50 points mark, signs of China's economy rebound;

Despite signs of improvement, but really bottomed out, most analysts caution that further observations should be

Although the cold weather continued, but that is the earth blowing slightly heating season, it is increasingly clear that the the bright and warm spring. Appears simultaneously with the natural seasons, under the international financial crisis China's economy began to reveal a trace of warmth.

G20 financial summit in attending the eve of President Hu Jintao told reporters that China's macroeconomic control policy measures have achieved initial results, showing a positive sign. Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao also said that after a period of time, and in some areas and industries steady rise of the signs.

Late last year, in response to financial crisis of the "National 10," published this year, the proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy gradually becoming apparent effect. 1,2 month fiery credit, bank lending has broken trillion, respectively, 1.62 trillion and 1.07 trillion. National Bureau of Statistics economic data for this year's 1,2 month, people can see some positive signs. For example: investment in fixed assets over the same period last year, an increase of 26.5%; total retail sales of social consumer goods and an increase of 15.2% compared to last year; electricity generation also fell from last year more 11,12 to 1,2 months of this year fell into more less. In addition, with the top ten industry restructuring and revitalization of the proposal and the government launched a series of policies to stimulate consumption, the market had a positive performance, significant increase in 1,2-month car sales, home appliances, farm machinery sales warming, oil consumption and part of the city's real estate sales there have been signs of improvement. In addition, the manufacturing purchasing managers index for 4 months, began to rise, and crossed the line marked economic expansion and contraction of the 50 point mark. Ma Jiantang National Bureau of Statistics said, which means that China's economy is likely to have stabilized.

Of course, the number of both 1,2-month positive signs, but also not wholly satisfactory. Such as foreign demand remains weak, exports fell 21.2%; scale industrial growth rate is still low, only 3.8%, marking a new low last 7 years. Taking into account the growth of secondary industry, the impact of China's economic growth, first quarter GDP growth may not immediately out of the doldrums.

Department of State Information Center deputy director of economic forecasting Zhu Baoliang analysis in an interview that the first two months of economic indicators can be said to have good and bad. Good investment, credit, etc., based on these indicators improved from a lot of money invested and the previous 230 billion yuan central government expenditure, reflecting the government increase the investment. However, the situation reflects the import and export port throughput, and real estate new construction area and some other leading index has not seen improvement, indicating that the financial crisis has not bottomed out. Comprehensive observation of these indicators, although they have not come to the conclusion has been warmer, but the momentum can be said to stabilize the economic downturn. "The worst time is over, as the government continued to increase investment, economic rebound in the accumulation of favorable factors in the increase, there will be significant economic recovery in the second half."

Zhu Baoliang said that although China's economic trends have not changed for the better long-term, government spending to boost domestic demand could also play a role in stabilizing the economy, but the real recovery also needs the world economic recovery. "Does the international financial crisis has bottomed out, is a controversial issue all over the world." United States real estate market and the recently announced retail sales data are better than expected, analysts noted that while the U.S. economy not out of the quagmire of negative growth, but Over the past few weeks have been a sufficient number of key indicators show economic contraction, slowing up to 15 months, this recession may have ended the most difficult period. For China, this change means a significant decline in exports is unlikely to continue, also confirmed the "worst time is over," the judge.

Despite signs of improvement, but really bottomed out, most analysts are cautious, indicating that further observation. Although the Chinese government earlier issued a series of crisis programs, increased investment, stimulate domestic demand policies are also widely praised by the States, but further play its role in stimulating the economy, but also take time. Meanwhile, some scholars pointed out that the new investments in the government to promote economic growth, social investment must consider how to follow up, or when the government began to exit the investment, social investment has not kept pace, then it may be second bottom . In mid-April, the National Bureau of Statistics will release first quarter economic statistics. The performance of the parties to the GDP, although not optimistic, but that a quarter of the year will be the most difficult period of three quarters after the economy will gradually warming up, the whole year GDP growth of 8% there is still hope.

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